the Oscars and the Spirit Awards: who will win and who should win

The nice folks at indieWIRE asked me to send in a ballot for the Oscars and the Spirit Awards. So here it is: My picks for who will win and who should win. (Note: In a few categories, I abstained from picking a "should win" if I didn't see enough of the nominees to feel comfortable making a selection.) If you want to see the consensus picks, click here for the Oscars and click here for the Spirit Awards.